Ballot for 2010

Re-posting this here, cuz SD usually has some good comments year in year out about the Rock Hall ballot. Here's what I've written:

My first thought at looking at this ballot... they've loaded up on women this year. Five strong female presences. Usually it's a token female or something like that, but they've really stepped it up.

In the order I think they'll make it:

KISS

In their favor: One of the most influential bands not in yet, quite possibly the most so on this ballot. Whether you love or hate them, they're a band that has a huge following, and is responsible for a LOT of young boys picking up the guitar. Regarded as one of the most overdue inductions. A solid guitar-band with serious name recognition.
Against them: Dave Marsh hates them, and his little circle of voters will probably work to keep them out. Also, not a very innovative band, musically speaking. From a technical perspective, not among the most stand out.
In the end: It took Black Sabbath eight nominations to get in, and this is only KISS's first. Nonetheless, I feel it's the only one they'll need. My odds for them: 80%

the Red Hot Chili Peppers

In their favor: The only act on here that might be more influential to rock'n'roll music than KISS. Maybe. Major force in the 90s, big in both the mainstream and underground circles. Also, with Flea giving the speech for Metallica last year, they're in some good graces with the muckity-mucks.
Against them: Too soon? They didn't break through the mainstream scene until the '90s, so that may play in.
In the end: They're one of two newly eligibles on this year's list, and I think they're a solid pick. My odds for them: 75%

Genesis

In their favor: Prog. There has been a BIG push to get more prog acts in the Hall. Also, the proving ground for Phil Collins and Peter Gabriel. Considered somewhat innovative.
Against them: They gave us Phil Collins. Also, Genesis doesn't top anyone's list for the prog act they'd most like to see inducted. That spot is usually reserved for either Rush, Yes, or Deep Purple. And once Collins took over, their prog-ness nosedived (nosedove?) a bit, too.
In the end: There's actually a prog act on the ballot. This may not happen again for another ten years or more. Get them in while you can. My odds for them: 66.67%

the Hollies

In their favor: A widely beloved band of the British Invasion of the '60s. And there's usually a lot of love for Oldies acts, and there's only a couple that neatly fit in that box, the Hollies most noticeably so. David Crosby has spoken out in favor of them as well, and I think most want to see Graham Nash get his second induction, this one maybe more deservedly so.
Against them: There are a couple other Oldies acts on here. Also, they're a group of White men. Diversity in the list of inductees may cause them to be overlooked.
In the end: The love for the oldies acts, especially ones that played straightforward rock'n'roll is still a pretty big factor, and I believe it'll put them in. My odds for them: 55%

At this point.... it REALLY becomes a crapshoot. So, taking a leap from the Lion's head, I'll continue....

Darlene Love

In her favor: To those in the industry, VERY respected and loved. Phil Spector's main lady for his work of the early 60s. A powerful voice. And for the diversity crowd, a Black woman, which knocks out two birds with one stone. Love for the oldies may factor in a second time.
Against her: She doesn't have the name recognition that others on here have. Plus, not the only Black woman, or oldies act. Plus, the whole argument that on those recordings, Phil Spector is the true artist.... the argument he used to keep the Ronettes off the ballot until 2005.
The Wanda Jackson factor: For those who don't know, Wanda Jackson was on the list of nominees for the 2009 ballot, but didn't get enough votes to be inducted as a Performer. So, the sub-committee that chooses Early Influences decided to induct her as an Early Influence. This opens up new and scary possibilities of workaround, cheat inductions that will come into play twice more on this ballot. In Darlene Love's case, because she was a main backup lady for Phil Spector, they may choose to induct her as a Side-Man if she doesn't get enough votes for the Performer category this year.
In the end: It really is a crapshoot at this point. I've changed my mind several times after originally choosing my top three. But, I'm going to try and walk on the water here, and say she won't need the Side-Man subcommittee to induct her this year. My odds for her induction: 53% My odds for her induction in the Performer category: 50%

Donna Summer

In her favor: She has a nickname: Queen of Disco. Always a plus factor. Again, diversity notes a Black woman, which would keep it from becoming a mulletfest. Also, possibly the foremost solo artist on this year's ballot in terms of name recognition.
Against her: Like prog, disco isn't heavily represented in the Hall. Unlike prog, though, disco has appeared several times on the ballot in the past, most notably with the five nominations of Chic. But the only disco acts in the Hall are the BeeGees and Earth, Wind, And Fire.
In the end: Darlene's my fifth pick and Donna my sixth because of the Oldies-love. Other than that, Donna would be my fifth pick. Such as it is, Donna's my pick for the Upset Special this year. My odds for her: 49%

Laura Nyro

In her favor: Well-respected singer/songwriter. She's in the realm of the artistic (second syllable pronounced "TEE") singer/songwriters also inhabited by James Taylor and Leonard Cohen. Written a lot of well-loved classic oldies. Absolutely GORGEOUS voice to boot.
Against her: Not quite as much name recognition as James Taylor or Leonard Cohen by the general public. Also, her songs are well-loved classic oldies... just not HER renditions. Her songs have become famous when later covered by acts like the Fifth Dimension, Three Dog Night, and Blood, Sweat, And Tears.
The Wanda Jackson factor: Because it's taken other acts to make her songs famous, you could make a really great sell for her to the subcommittee that chooses Non-Performer inductees. It's similar, though with some very obvious differences, to the story of Carole King's induction as a Non-Performer.
In the end: It's sad that she passed away in 1997. I would love to have heard her sing at her own induction. If she does get in, I just hope they don't have Dionne Warwick sing the tribute to her. My odds for her induction: 50% My odds for her induction in the Performer category: 45%

LL Cool J

In his favor: Well-known, well-respected rapper, and pioneer in the format. You can very clearly see, in his tracks, the bridge he provided between the rap of the early to mid-80s to rap as we know it today. Also, the only rap act on the ballot, so the ballot is not split in a way that would hurt him.
Against him: Despite two rap acts already being inducted, there's still a sentiment of "This is the ROCK'N'ROLL Hall Of Fame; rap does not belong." And those who have no problem with *some* rap acts getting in are stunned that the Beastie Boys aren't the rap act this year. Or Afrika Bambaataa. Or even the Sugarhill Gang. Also, didn't break through the mainstream arena of Pop until the late 80s/early 90s. Will it come into play?
In the end: Since rap artists have become eligible for the Hall, there's been a push to have at least one rap act on the ballot every year. There's less urgency to get him in now, especially ahead of the Beastie Boys. My odds for him: 40%

the Chantels

In their favor: Well-loved girl group. Also doo-wop. There's a soft spot for doo-wop in the Hall. Like Donna, Darlene, and ABBA, this is also the Chantels' second nomination, and odds usually improve with multiple nominations. Beautiful voices and harmonies, too.
Against them: Best known for softer love songs. Also, two stronger female presences on the ballot, and one stronger and one slightly stronger Oldies presence on the ballot.
The Wanda Jackson factor: Because they were a 50's group, and considered the first R&B girl group that got the formula right (though they weren't the first R&B girl group in rock'n'roll history), they may be another workaround, cheat induction, and once again in the Early Influence category. This is a much harder sell than Wanda Jackson, but Wanda Jackson looked pretty farfetched when they announced her as the Early Influence inductee last year. For the record, I have nothing against Wanda Jackson. Her music is awesome. But her induction in the Early Influence category is a major eyebrow-raiser for a few good reasons.
In the end: I love the Chantels, but being the earliest debuting act on this year's ballot isn't going to be enough for them, in my opinion. Just not enough strength. My odds for their induction: 40% My odds for their induction in the Performer category: 37.5%

Jimmy Cliff

In his favor: A true original. Unique marriage of soul, gospel, and reggae in his music. Unique voice too. Really, the only soul representative on this year's ballot, which worked for Bobby Womack last year.
Against him: Once Bob Marley is in, do you want/need another reggae representative? If so, why not Peter Tosh instead? Additionally, being the only soul representative hasn't helped Joe Tex get in, so that balances out somewhat. Also, may just simply get lost in the shuffle amidst the other acts. Someone you'd like to see in, but there'll probably usually be five acts more deserving on any given ballot to keep him out. In my opinion, the flaw lies within their selection process.
In the end: I am predicting he'll be lost in the shuffle. But keep an eye out. Even though I've got him ranked 10th most likely, he's still an interesting one to watch. If you want to know if Peter Tosh has a chance, let's see what happens with Jimmy Cliff first. My odds for him: 35%

ABBA

In their favor: Many hit songs that are memorable, and fun, and just well-loved. Also, a repeat nominees. Add to that, Mamma Mia! has catapulted their catalog back into the limelight, so there's a lot of positive hype going for them as well. A timely induction into the Hall as icing on the cake?
Against them: Again, still a strong "Disco sucks" sentiment, at least so it seems. Also, their brand of disco was bright and cheerful; not moody, funky, and conducive to grinding into a partner on the dance floor thus helping you hook up that night, which is the path that modern dance music has seriously taken, despite the fun pop-electronica that briefly surfaced in the mid-90s. Also, they're the reason we got Roxette and Ace Of Base... not highly respected followers.
In the end: With twelve nominees, the ballot-splitting factor is important, and with Donna on board as well, ABBA does not stand a strong chance. My odds for them: 25%

the Stooges

In their favor: Highly influential and innovative. Respected by past nominees. In fact, past inductees have been doing most of the pushing for them. Also, this is nomination number eight for them. Only one artist, Solomon Burke, has needed more nominations than that to get in. Five others got in on number eight. So, it appears that eight is indeed enough most of the time.
Against them: Just about everyone who pays attention to this thought the Stooges were a lock last year... and they missed. Upon further analysis, I've discovered that with the exception of their first nomination, every time they've lost, there has been a guitar-band with much more name recognition than them on the ballot that got in over them. See again, my top three choices to make it.
In the end: With KISS, the Red Hot Chili Peppers, and Genesis on the ballot, the Stooges are just going to get shafted again. If you want them in, make sure they're the ONLY guitar-heavy rock band on the ballot. My odds for their induction: 20%

My past track record: in 2007, I went 5/5. 2008, 4/5; and 2009, 3/5. The trend shows I could be 2/5 this year. And with twelve nominees, it's mathematically possible for me to be 0/5 this year. And with this ballot, it's a distinct possibility.

I'm totally unqualified to comment here, but why let that stop me?

Kiss: I suppose from the standpoint of their influence on actually putting on a show, they deserve it. Musically? A big MEH.

Genesis: Seriously? This is the best they can put out there for prog? Does anyone remember Kansas?

Now now bam, even Dorothy forgot Kansas at one point.

some kind of short story of rock

Yes and Queen

Queen's already in.

What about Yes?

No

Well...

They're expected to announce the Class of 2010 sometime next week... that's the scuttlebutt at least. Supposedly, the Hollies are one of the five; however, the source for that is unreliable.

Meanwhile, Future Rock Legends predicted their five for 2010... they have four of my top five; however, they've picked ABBA instead of the Red Hot Chili Peppers. Can't say I blame them.... ABBA's got a lot going for them momentum-wise right now, but then again, last year the Stooges had a shitload of momentum, and it still didn't get them in.

abba? donna summer? LL cool jay? they are not rock, the rock n' roll hall of fame is a joke.

Oh yeah, inductees were announced.

ABBA, Jimmy Cliff, Genesis, the Hollies, the Stooges

In the Non-Performer category:

Jeff Barry & Ellie Greenwich
Otis Blackwell
David Geffen
Barry Mann & Cynthia Weil
Mort Shuman
Jesse Stone


At least they did justice with the N-P category this year.

wow succo... your handicapping sux!

Thanks coops. That's very supportive of you.

But then again, a lot of us went 2/5 this year. It was just a very hard field.

TJ, who'd you like to see inducted into the Hall? But just so you know, if your list doesn't include at least one Black artist, I will not take your list seriously.

To practice voting in the special ballots for automation, download
sample ballots for non-ARMM and ARMM areas at the Comelec website or if
the Comelec site is slow, download ballot template for ARRM and non-ARRM
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